🛠 If It Ain't Broke

BTFD works again, March inflation expectations and more

Author

Brooks Dyroff
April 09, 2024

Happy Tuesday, Zingernation! ‘If it ain’t broke don’t fix it’ can refer to a lot of things. Like your grandma’s chocolate chip cookie recipe that everyone loves, but if you changed it at all she’d flip.

The phrase can also be used to refer to trading strategies. In 2020 and 2021, it was ‘blindly buy everything,’ which worked swimmingly until it didn’t. Now the go-to strategy has been ‘BTFD’– buy the f****** dip. Last Thursday the market got clobbered, then bounced right back. Today, $SPY rose more than 1% from its intraday lows as investors saw this morning’s dip as a buying opportunity. So next time I see that dip - I’m not questioning it - I’m going in head first. What could go wrong?

Today’s Price Action:

$SPY: +0.12%
$QQQ: +0.37%
$DIA: -0.07%

Also, don’t miss out on your opportunity to easily invest in vacation and rental homes through today’s partner.

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TODAY’S MOST VOLATILE STOCKS
TODAY’S TOP STORY
Flying Klm Royal Dutch Airlines GIF by KLM

Briefly: Boeing investors are closely monitoring recent developments as the aerospace giant navigates a series of challenges. The stock traded lower by 1.87% this afternoon after the company reported Q1 deliveries of 97 planes.

The Details: The 97 deliveries are across its commercial and defense programs, significantly lower than the same period a year ago. Boeing’s stock has been facing downward pressure since the beginning of the year, having fallen over 30% year-to-date.

The Turbulence: One of the recent crises involved a mid-air incident where a Boeing 737-800 aircraft lost its engine cover during takeoff at Denver International Airport. This, coupled with the company’s decision to pay outgoing CEO David Calhoun $32.8 million in total compensation for 2023, reflects ongoing turbulence within the organization.

Pressure Is Mounting: Moreover, Boeing’s strategic shift in its supply chain, potentially ending its 20-year outsourcing strategy, has raised questions about the company’s long-term direction. The decline in production of its 737 MAX jetliners due to increased regulatory inspections and assembly line slowdowns adds further pressure.

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FIVE MOVERS

Bitcoin moved lower by about 4% in the last 24 hours as investors appear wary ahead of tomorrow’s inflation report.

Bilibili shares closed higher today by more than 5% amid overall strength in Chinese names ahead of Janet Yellen’s upcoming China trip.

Cannabis stocks got crushed in today’s session following a disappointing earnings result from Tilray, a leading name in the space.

Rocket’s stock closed higher today after the company announced a new AI-based home lending product.

NVIDIA shares moved lower in today’s session as interest-rate sensitive industries like semiconductors displayed weakness ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report.

ONE TRADE IDEA FOR TOMORROW
Cost Of Living Coupon GIF by CBS

In Short: Investors’ eyes are eagerly fixed on the March inflation data set to be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics tomorrow.

Basically: According to the consensus among economists, the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for March is expected to rise to 3.4%, up from the previous 3.2%. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food items, is anticipated to ease slightly from 3.8% to 3.7%.

The Numbers: Both monthly readings are projected at 0.3%, a slight deceleration compared to the 0.4% observed in February.

Some Factors: Wells Fargo sits at the high end of the forecast range, predicting a headline rate of 3.5% and a core rate of 3.8%. The robustness of headline figures is attributed, in part, to the uptick in gasoline prices, with expectations of a strengthening in food inflation as well.

Analysts’ Take: Analysts at Wells Fargo anticipate March’s report will reveal hints of two inflation dynamics: early-year noise and a longer journey of inflation back to the Fed’s target.

PRESENTED BY ARRIVED

Arrived's mission is to empower everyone to build wealth through modern real estate investing. We created an investor experience simplifying the complex decision-making traditionally associated with real estate — and lowered the barriers to entry — so anyone can do it.

With Arrived, investors can browse individual single-family residential homes and vacation rentals (pre-vetted based on their appreciation and income potential), choose how much to invest, and start building a highly-tailored portfolio of hand-selected investment properties in minutes.