MARKET RECAP

Yesterday: Stocks dropped for the second consecutive day as tech weakness and hawkish Fed commentary fueled risk-off sentiment. Semiconductors were some of the hardest hit as Nvidia and AMD both announced they expect to take significant hits this quarter due to tariffs and new U.S. chip export restrictions to China. Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned tariffs could slow growth and fuel inflation, but signaled the Fed will be patient and in wait-and-see mode. Lastly, retail sales for March came in above expectations, showing resilient consumer demand.

On Our Radar: Looking ahead, markets will be tuning in for potential policy signals as Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks Thursday morning, followed by remarks from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly on Friday. On the earnings front, Netflix will release Q1 results today after the market closes.

TOP STORY

Chipwrecked: Nvidia's Export Ban Triggers ETF Meltdown (And One Big Winner)

Nvidia’s export ban has sent shockwaves through the market, causing wild swings in semiconductor ETFs. Are these volatile moves a chance to profit or a warning sign?

Read on to find out.

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FIVE ZINGERS

Hertz So Good: The rental car company saw its stock rise more than 50% after Bill Ackman's Pershing Square revealed a 19.8% stake, becoming Hertz’s second-largest shareholder. Could this be the start of a high-octane comeback?

Gold Surge: Gold is soaring to new record highs as market volatility pushes investors toward safe-haven assets. Discover the top two ways to invest in gold—and which one might be the smartest move for your portfolio today.

Fed Resistance: Fed Chair Jerome Powell rejects the idea of Fed intervention in falling markets, citing inflation risks and policy uncertainty. How could this stance impact future growth?

Ark Moves: Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest is making waves after buying Robinhood and Solana, while cutting Bitcoin exposure. What’s driving these bold moves?

Intel’s Struggles: Shares of Intel have tumbled 47% over the past year and remain stuck in a downtrend. Find out how its challenges are shaping the semiconductor market.

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Alpha Buying: This 8% Yield Fund Just Got A CEO-Sized Endorsement

Editor’s Note: Every week, Tim Melvin releases Alpha Buying, a report detailing the insider buying that, unlike most, is actually worth paying attention to. Here’s a sneak peek at the report:

Ordinarily, during a market decline like the one we have seen since the tariff announcements on Wednesday afternoon—where the market has dropped 10% in just a couple of days and opened significantly lower on Monday—we would expect to see a wave of insider buying.

A selloff of this magnitude would typically be a siren call for executives and directors to bring out the checkbooks. However, that has not happened. Not even close. When you stop and think about it, the lack of insider buying is not all that surprising. The market, even after the hit, still is not cheap, not by any meaningful valuation or earnings metric.

On a trailing twelve-month basis, we are trading at 24 times earnings. Yes, that is off the recent high of almost 30 but it is still well above historical norms. Even when examining projected earnings, valuations remain elevated.

The Shiller CAPE ratio, the inflation-adjusted ten-year earnings metric that is one of the best long-term valuation tools available, is sitting at 31. That figure is down from a recent peak near 35, yet it remains significantly higher than the long-run average.

The market is not cheap.

It is certainly not inexpensive enough to inspire the kind of aggressive insider buying we usually observe when stocks experience a sharp decline. However, the situation extends beyond high price-to-earnings ratios.

The real concern here is uncertainty. Massive, unquantifiable, policy-driven uncertainty.

Click here to gain access to the full report!

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