Happy Friday! Trade negotiations between the U.S. and China have hit a wall, with many now looking to President Trump and Xi for a potential breakthrough. Read on to see what’s fueling the deadlock and how the next move will reshape the market.

Also, the latest Federal Reserve minutes highlight rising concerns about tariff-driven inflation and market volatility, signaling a cautious outlook from policymakers. What other risks are on the Fed’s radar?

Plus, if you’re looking to capitalize on seasonal market patterns with a data-driven edge, check out today’s sponsor.

In Today's Edition

• MARKET RECAP

• FIVE ZINGERS

• MARKET HISTORY

• ONE FOR THE ROAD

Scott Bessent Says US-China Trade Talks At Stalemate, Need Trump And Xi Jinping Touch To Break The Deadlock

Just when it seemed like momentum was building toward a breakthrough, trade talks between the United States and China have hit a familiar roadblock. Despite the recent truce that raised hopes, the path forward has become murky again.

According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, progress has slowed, and both sides may now be waiting for a higher-level intervention — potentially involving Presidents Trump and Xi — to reinvigorate negotiations and push toward a resolution.

Behind the scenes, the diplomatic dance is getting more complicated. While Bessent remains cautiously optimistic, recent escalations — from visa crackdowns to tech restrictions, etc. — suggest deeper fractures are at play. The markets are watching closely, as any signal from Washington or Beijing could tilt the balance. One thing is certain: the global economy is holding its breath as the two powerhouses go at it.

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Yesterday: U.S. stocks finished higher Thursday, though gains were limited as investors weighed a flurry of legal developments concerning President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled late Wednesday that Trump overstepped his authority and ordered them to be vacated. However, the Trump administration swiftly appealed the decision, and an appeals court reinstated the levies Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, U.S. GDP for Q1 was revised to a smaller contraction of -0.2%, with stronger investment partially offsetting weaker government spending and higher imports. Jobless claims rose for a third straight week to 240,000, suggesting mild labor market softening, though unemployment remains low at 4.2%. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year at 4.42%, while the dollar weakened and oil prices declined on potential supply hikes from OPEC+.

On Our Radar: Analysts will be monitoring the final reading of consumer sentiment — which continues to slide — for insights into consumer confidence and implications for economic growth and spending trends. On the earnings front, Campbell's (CPB) will be in the spotlight Monday morning as the company reports before the market opens.

Dell-ightful Results: Dell crushed Q1 revenue estimates thanks to record demand for its AI-optimized servers. In addition, the company also significantly raised its full-year guidance. Check out the full story to see how AI is powering Dell’s outlook higher and why investors and analysts are bullish on the company’s future.

Bulk Sales, Big Profits: Costco delivered a cart full of earnings beats, topping revenue and profit estimates, while flexing pricing power with its first membership fee hike in 7 years. Here are the details behind why shares initially surged before falling after hours.

Ransom-Proof Rally: Zscaler blew past Wall Street's expectations and raised its full-year outlook, signaling strong demand for its AI-powered cybersecurity. With new leadership and bullish momentum, this cybersecurity stock looks poised to continue its massive run.

Fast Path: Shares of UiPath climbed after hours thanks to easily beating analyst estimates on the top and bottom lines and raising its Q2 and full-year outlook. Discover how this milestone quarter could reshape the automation landscape.

Beauty Surge: Ulta Beauty dazzled Wall Street with a blowout earnings report, topping expectations on both the top and bottom lines. The beauty retailer also raised its 2025 outlook, signaling strong growth ahead despite global uncertainty. Read on for the full breakdown.

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On This Day In 2000…

The Nasdaq Composite Index experienced its largest single-day gain in its 29-year history, soaring 254.37 points (7.94%) to close at 3,459.48. This surge was driven by optimism over potential bargains following a market shakeout and expectations that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes may be nearing an end. Despite the significant gain, the Nasdaq Composite Index was still 31% below its March 10 peak.

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Federal Reserve Minutes Flag Tariff-Driven Inflation, Eye US Market Volatility As Economic Risk

The Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, released Wednesday, reveal a growing sense of caution and concern among policymakers. While inflation has come down from pandemic-era highs, Fed officials continue to proceed with caution due to all the global uncertainty and trade talks.

According to the minutes, the new trade barriers proposed by President Trump could reignite inflationary pressures, potentially forcing the central bank into “difficult tradeoffs.”

Businesses are already preparing to pass higher costs on to consumers, raising fears of a return to the kind of price stickiness seen during the pandemic. The minutes also show that firms that aren’t even hit by tariffs may raise prices and take advantage of the current economic backdrop.

This has led Fed officials to proceed cautiously, opting to keep the benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25% to 4.5% — unchanged since December — as they wait for clearer signals on inflation and economic activity. But inflation isn't the only risk flashing on the Fed’s radar. Read on to see what else officials are tracking and what it could mean for you and your investments.

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