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S&P 500’s Historic Streak Faces Midterm Curse | Tariff Ruling Could Rock Markets

Plus, Discord IPO, Nvidia-China standoff, stock of the day, and more

Happy Thursday! The S&P 500 just achieved a rare three-year run of 15%+ gains — a milestone that’s appeared only a handful of times before — and what followed next wasn’t always smooth. Read on to see why this election-year pattern has Wall Street’s full attention.

Also, the Supreme Court could rule on tariffs as soon as this Friday, and the decision could send shockwaves throughout the market. Here's a look at what's at stake and the stocks and sectors that could see the biggest impact.

Plus, if you’re looking for an alternative investment that’s historically outperformed the S&P 500, check out today’s sponsor.

TOP STORY

Wall street, NY

The S&P 500 has delivered gains of 15% or more for three consecutive years, marking just the eighth time in market history and investors are hoping that bullish momentum continues this year.

However, based on history, what comes next is rarely smooth. As investors look ahead with growing confidence, a lesser-known seasonal pattern tied to midterm election years is quietly flashing caution. Read on to see how this year could play out in the market and how you can take advantage of it.

Wall Street Isn’t Warning You, But This Chart Might

Vanguard just projected public markets may return only 5% annually over the next decade. In a 2024 report, Goldman Sachs forecasted the S&P 500 may return just 3% annually for the same time frame—stats that put current valuations in the 7th percentile of history.

Translation? The gains we’ve seen over the past few years might not continue for quite a while.

Meanwhile, another asset class—almost entirely uncorrelated to the S&P 500 historically—has overall outpaced it for decades (1995-2024), according to Masterworks data.

Masterworks lets everyday investors invest in shares of multimillion-dollar artworks by legends like Banksy, Basquiat, and Picasso.

And they’re not just buying. They’re exiting—with net annualized returns like 17.6%, 17.8%, and 21.5% among their 23 sales.*

Wall Street won’t talk about this. But the wealthy already are. Shares in new offerings can sell quickly but…

*Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Important Reg A disclosures: masterworks.com/cd.

MARKET RECAP

Averages & Assets
AssetClose 01/07/26Price Change
SPX
$6,920.93
-0.34%
NASDAQ
$23,584.28
+0.16%
DJI
$48,996.08
-0.94%
10-Year
4.15%
+0.02 bps
INTC - Notable Gainer
$42.63
+6.47%
FSLR - Notable Loser
$241.11
-10.29%
BTC
$91,257.00
-2.57%
ETH
$3,164.79
-3.96%
XRP
$2.16
-6.49%

Yesterday: U.S. indexes finished mixed Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Dow snapping three-day winning streaks as the major indexes retreated from intraday record highs. Despite the S&P 500 slipping and the Dow tumbling, the Nasdaq was able to squeak out a slight gain thanks to a jump in Alphabet, which surpassed Apple in market capitalization for the first time since 2019. With regards to commodities, oil prices declined after President Donald Trump said Venezuela’s interim authorities would supply up to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., raising concerns about increased global supply. And in merger news, Warner Bros. rejected Paramount’s latest takeover bid, saying it was inferior to its existing agreement with Netflix.

On Our Radar: Analysts will be paying attention to initial jobless claims, the U.S. trade deficit, and consumer credit data for insights on the labor market, trade trends, and consumer demand. On the earnings front, all eyes will be on Greenbrier (GBX) and Tilray (TLRY) which will report results after the market close today.

MARKET HEATMAP

Shares of Intel (INTC) surged as investors applauded its new product lineup. In addition, Datadog (DDOG) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) were notable gainers as well. On the bearish side, Skyworks (SWKS) and Western Digital (WDC) were some of the biggest losers of the day. But those weren’t the only companies making big moves. Here’s a look at some of the biggest winners and losers on Wednesday.

Discover how the market is moving with our interactive heatmap. Filter by market cap, or click on any box to explore specific sectors or assets in more detail.

FIVE ZINGERS

IPO Watch: Discord, the chat app loved by more than 200 million gamers, could soon join the ranks of public tech giants after quietly filing an IPO, with the option to back out as well. Here’s everything you need to know.

Chip Standoff: China just put the brakes on Nvidia chip orders—forcing tech firms to rethink their AI strategies. Find out what this could mean for Nvidia and the global chip market.

Digital Boom: Shares of Applied Digital surged after its latest earnings report. Click to see what’s driving investor excitement and why the company could be poised for even bigger gains ahead.

Options Corner: Shares of Skyworks plunged, but quants see a setup that could spark a sharp rebound. Discover how a clever options strategy might turn this volatility into a big opportunity.

Stock Of The Day: Micron’s recent surge has traders on edge with these indicators flashing. See where the stock could go and how to take advantage. 

SPECIAL OFFER

When Benzinga Pro breaks exclusive news, members see it before Bloomberg, CNBC, and the public feed. Earnings, FDA approvals, and deal headlines often move fast once they go public. This is how traders position early instead of chasing the crowd.

MARKET HISTORY

On This Day In 1982…

AT&T agreed to a landmark settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice that led to the breakup of the Bell System, ending one of the most powerful monopolies in American business history. Often viewed as the last U.S. monopoly to be dismantled by antitrust action, AT&T’s divestiture of its regional “Baby Bells” reshaped the telecommunications industry and set a modern precedent for competition policy. The breakup opened the door to innovation, lower consumer prices, and massive capital market activity for the newly independent regional companies.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“Constant learning is mandatory for any investor.“

— Steve Cohen

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