Happy Tuesday! Recession odds for 2025 are rising, with markets, boardrooms and consumer sentiment all flashing warning signs. Read on to see what experts are saying about the road ahead. Also, discover the importance of a clear policy on tariffs.

— Justin Giles

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MARKET RECAP

Yesterday: The indexes posted back-to-back winning sessions on Monday as a temporary tariff exemption on electronics lifted sentiment. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, tumbled more than 6 points, while U.S. Treasury yields also retreated, providing a reprieve and continued momentum for stocks. Investors now shift their focus to Q1 earnings with a plethora of companies reporting this week. While expectations have been tempered, all signs still point to modest growth, particularly in healthcare and tech sectors.

On Our Radar: With tariff uncertainty, analysts will look to U.S. retail sales and industrial production data on Wednesday for fresh insights into consumer demand and factory activity against a backdrop of tariff uncertainty. On the earnings front, United Airlines and Interactive Brokers are set to report results after hours today.

TOP STORY

A US Recession In 2025? Betting Odds Say It's More Likely Than Not

Despite efforts from the Trump administration to ease trade tensions, warning lights are flashing across markets, boardrooms and consumer surveys alike.

Read on to see the latest projections and what experts are saying. 

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FIVE ZINGERS

Death Cross: The S&P 500 just flashed its first "Death Cross" in three years — a bearish technical signal that historically precedes deeper market downturns. What does this mean for your portfolio?

Travel Tensions: Tariff-driven volatility is shaking up the lodging sector. Click here to see which hotel giants may be overexposed and underprepared.

Scarcity Surge: In just 24 hours, the burn rate for Shiba Inu surged more than 1,700%. But with low demand and fading whale activity, is this a spark or just smoke? Dive into the details here.

Oil Optimism: Despite crude prices plunging below $65 and global trade tensions weighing on demand, Energy Secretary Chris Wright — a U.S. shale veteran — is bullish on the U.S. oil industry. See why Wright believes that shale’s best days are still ahead.

Token Surge: XRP is on the rise, gaining 13% this week as Ripple and BCG highlight tokenization as the next frontier in finance. Discover why early adopters are poised to lead, and why sitting on the sidelines could be costly.

SPECIAL OFFER

The Insider Report: Bulls Establish A Beachhead, But Downside Risks Persist

Editor’s Note: Every week, Benzinga Edge members receive the Insider Report. It’s a rundown of what to expect from the markets in the week to come, which sectors are outperforming and why, and most importantly, a selection of hand-picked stocks that are poised to move up because of that week’s trends. Here’s a sneak peek:

To give you an idea of how unprecedented this market environment is, when is the last time we had a situation where the global trade order was being tossed aside? Ever since the end of World War II, the global economy has moved toward open trade. Whether or not such trade has been "fair" is a conversation for another time.

Some may point to the Smoot-Hawley tariffs that passed in the 1930s as the last time we had protectionist policies. Some even take it a step further and say it's the reason behind the Great Depression. I think that's a bit of a stretch given governments around the world were already defaulting on their debt before the tariffs even came into effect. Plus, the market had already peaked.

So what comes next? It seems that the goal is a multilateral trade order versus a U.S.-centric one. Is that the best path forward? Nobody really knows. But markets are certainly adjusting. The world wants to sell to the U.S. as the country accounts for roughly 1/3 of global consumption. Without access to American markets, net exporters have a big problem on their hands. Hopefully we get some clarity in the coming weeks before the 90-day window expires.

To keep reading and to find out how investors can get in front of the noise, sign up for the Insider Report here.

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